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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
In the past EV’s have depreciated faster than ICE cars. There is an extreme high demand for the Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and of course the Tesla. Also the Ford Mach E. While the demand is currently high for these newer EV’s , do you think when the chip shortage abates and more EV’s are produced that we could be seeing our expensive electric cars depreciating faster than we expect? TIA
JR
 

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In the past EV’s have depreciated faster than ICE cars. There is an extreme high demand for the Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and of course the Tesla. Also the Ford Mach E. While the demand is currently high for these newer EV’s , do you think when the chip shortage abates and more EV’s are produced that we could be seeing our expensive electric cars depreciating faster than we expect? TIA
JR
Really tough to say. How quickly will advancements in battery and charging tech come along, and how long will it take for them to enter mass production in a vehicle? All of the research and advancements I've read about seem like 5 years would be really quick, probably 8-10 years for mass adoption.

How much will existing tech become less costly to produce as it's more widely-adopted? Or will scarcities continue to occur?

Right now we may be seeing downward pressure on pricing by those aiming for market penetration, and incentives from gov't. What about when everyone wants an EV and the charging infrastructure is so good that incentives aren't necessary?

The long and short is that I figured now was a great time to buy my first EV. Infrastructure is sufficient and investments continue; incentives will dry up in 1-2 yrs probably; tech advancements take a long time to come to market and given some price disparities some of the good deals out there appear to be cutting profits razor-thin to gain market share and reputation.

The one risk I saw is a giant jump in power/performance as it's "easy" to bump up; our 320 hp cars might be considered slow and underpowered in 4 yrs (or it might be very inexpensive to get 400-600 hp trims). But on the other hand, look at Toyota/Subaru
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Thanks for your input. Improved range and power are the two unknowns right now. EV’s historically have depreciated faster than ICE vehicles, although history is short. Resale value is affected by numerous factors including battery degradation and future technology improvements although EV’s have come a long way in a short timeframe. The tech inside the EV6 is amazing but not much better than in a Telluride. My Telly is worth at least 15% more than the MSRP that we paid for it at one year old. Can we say the same for the EV6 ? That’s the wildcard at this point in time.
 

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Basically, just enjoy the car. I bought my 2019 Subaru Crosstrek plug-in hybrid not caring about depreciation, popularity, etc. I have just under 14,000mi on it and glad I can drive it around locally and not need gas for months (especially right now with gas prices). The car is currently selling for $7,000 more than I paid for it in 2019, but I have no need to sell as it fits my lifestyle perfectly and I have zero commute. Even if my commute came back, I'm still all electric on a daily basis to the train station.

270 +/- miles range is ideal. Unless you drive 100+ miles a day every day, you don't really need much more. Even with my old commute, I'd charge the car maybe once or twice a month. No sense in carrying around that extra battery weight if you never really use it with the exception of maybe 3 or 4 times a year. 1) it's not good for wear and tear of the vehicle, 2) it's not good for the local roads or your driveway, 3) it's more wasteful than good having extra stuff you just don't need.
 

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Part of the fast depreciation was due to the inability of a subsequent buyer to claim government incentives. Once availability in the overall car market recovers we might be able to see how cars like Teslas that no longer have incentives hold their value over time.
 

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Thanks for your input. Improved range and power are the two unknowns right now. EV’s historically have depreciated faster than ICE vehicles, although history is short. Resale value is affected by numerous factors including battery degradation and future technology improvements although EV’s have come a long way in a short timeframe. The tech inside the EV6 is amazing but not much better than in a Telluride. My Telly is worth at least 15% more than the MSRP that we paid for it at one year old. Can we say the same for the EV6 ? That’s the wildcard at this point in time.
Well I'm about to sell my ID.4 for $1,000 over MSRP. I've had it for 4 months and have about 5,000 miles on it.
 

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I have read that batteries will get cheaper in a few years when the makers gear up to make more packs to meet the demand. But I wouldn't expect a big drop in depreciation. The Fed tax credit is a nice buffer. That credit may not be available in a year or two.
 

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In the next 5 years, I doubt you'll see more than a 50% depreciation. My guess is that the EV6 on the used market will go for somewhere around $35,000 in 5 years. I'm curious to see what the BMW i4 looks like on the certified pre owned market in 3 years.
 

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Our 2018 (40Kwh) Leaf has deprerciated 50% now. e-Niros keeps it's value way better but I presume the depreciation will accelerate with a newer model and more cars available.

It's all about range and availability.
 

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when the chip shortage abates
Thanks to the Ukraine situation that shortage isn't abaiting any time soon so speculation will be really far out. The pandemic was bad enough but losing 70% of the world's semiconductor grade neon is only making the situation much worse.
 

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I think the federal tax credit factors into how much a used EV6 will depreciate. As long as demand exceeds supply, it won't depreciate that fast but once there's enough supply of new EV6's and if people buying used ones can't get any tax credit (unless the EV tax credits rules change) then I think you'll see the value of used EV6's depreciate faster. Also, how well the EV6 batteries age will factor into the depreciation. Nobody is going to pay a lot of money for a used EV6 if it doesn't appear that the battery is going to keep holding a good charge for a while.
 
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